Presenting Your Halftime ETF Scorecard
The first half of a most unusual year for the financial markets now is in the books, and that means it’s time to break out the halftime exchange-traded fund (ETF) scorecard to see which funds have led the charge higher, and how those funds compare to the exchange-traded funds representing the major market indices.
Let’s start by looking at the table below of the top-performing ETFs through the first half of the year. Note that the “%200DMA” column shows the percentage that each fund is above its 200-day moving average. This metric is important because it tells us how far extended a fund has become when compared to its long-term trend line.
|SCIF||Market Vectors India S/C||62.93||54.01|
|SCIN||Emerging Global Index India||49.44||43.25|
|GLDX||Global X Gold Explorers ETF||45.82||19.77|
|SMIN||iShares MSCI India Small Cap Index Fund||44.18||42.90|
|SILJ||Purefunds ISE Junior SIL-ETF||43.90||18.64|
|INXX||Emerging Global Shares Index||39.38||29.99|
|GDXJ||Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF||36.10||14.59|
|GGGG||Global X Pure Gold Miners ETF||35.53||15.05|
|EPI||WisdomTree India Earnings||28.84||24.79|
|TAN||Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy||26.69||11.70|
As you can see by the table of the top 10 ETFs in the first half, it’s all about India, precious metals mining stocks, emerging markets and solar. The election in India of a pro-business Prime Minister was great for stocks in that country, and the rise in gold and silver prices helped mining stocks do very well. The rise in oil prices prompted renewed buying interest in alternative energy stocks like solar.
Now, as you can see, the huge gains in the top 10 ETFs outperform the still very strong performance of the major market indices. The table below shows the ETFs we use to mirror the most important market measures.
|DIA||SPDR DJIA Trust||1.46||4.32|
|SPY||SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust||5.97||7.19|
|IWM||iShares Russell 2000 ETF||2.99||5.50|
|EFA||iShares MSCI EAFE ETF||1.90||2.87|
|EEM||iShares MSCI Emerging Market||3.43||4.84|
|AGG||iShares Core U.S. Aggregate||2.79||1.55|
|TLT||iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond||11.45||5.64|
|EMB||iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond||6.57||4.40|
|GLD||SPDR Gold Shares||10.27||3.13|
|OIL||iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil||10.60||8.05|
Here we see that although there have been big gains in all of these market vital signs; we haven’t yet seen a situation where these markets have extended far beyond their respective 200-day moving averages.
The biggest move above the long-term trend line is in crude oil, with the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil (OIL) 8.05% above its 200-day moving average. Right now, gold, bonds and European equities are slightly above their long-term trend lines.
In our Successful ETF Investing advisory service, we currently have exposure to alternative energy stocks, precious metals and mining stocks and emerging markets. If you are looking for a way to generate ideas that will fit your financial goals, then you owe it to yourself to check out Successful ETF Investing today.
On Time Passages
Well, I’m not the kind to live in the past
The years run too short and the days too fast
The things you lean on are things that don’t last
Well, it’s just now and then my line gets cast into these time passages
–Al Stewart, “Time Passages”
It’s okay to reminisce about the good old days, but I like to live for the now. This philosophy also is important when it comes to investing, because what worked in the past may not work in the now, or in the future. Keep that in mind the next time you lean on ideas, and investment vehicles, that don’t last.
Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow Weekly ETF Report readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Ask Doug.
In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter column from last week about how you can dodge mutual fund fees with ETFs. I also invite you to comment in the space provided below.
Doug Fabian is the editor of the monthly investment newsletter Successful ETF Investing and is the host of the syndicated radio show, "Doug Fabian's Wealth Strategies." Taking over the reins from his dad, Dick Fabian, back in 1992, Doug has continued to uphold the reputation of the newsletter as the #1 risk-adjusted market timer as ranked by Hulbert’s Investment Digest. Doug published the book, "Maverick Investing," and has appeared as a commentator on CNBC, Fox News and CNN. He also has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Barron's and other publications.
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