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Dividends Lead to Healthy Profits in a Bear Market

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[two bears]

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” — Ben Franklin

The above quote is taken from my “Maxims of Wall Street.” The third edition was just released (see details below).

What’s the best way to survive and prosper when stocks slump? We are now in a full-scale market retreat that began on January 1, 2014. It is not surprising after the massive boom of 2013, when stocks climbed 30% or more.

Steve Forbes said it best, “Everyone is a disciplined, long-term investor… until the market goes down.” Then people panic.

What’s the best strategy — (1) sell your stocks and go to cash? (2) sell stocks short and actually profit as the market retreats? Or (3) dollar-cost-average in stocks that inevitably will go up?

For most investors, the smart answer is (3) to dollar-cost-average, especially in stocks that pay steady and rising dividends.

I have a whole section of great quotes from seasoned investors and money managers about dividend-paying stocks in “Maxims.” Here are just a few words of wisdom:

“Dividends are the critical factor giving the edge to most winning stocks in the long run.”

— Jeremy Siegel, The Wizard of Wall Street, author of “Stocks for the Long Run”

The evidence supports this conclusion. According to Ned Davis Research, companies paying a dividend returned 10.1% compared with just 4.1% for non-dividend companies between 1972 and 2006. What’s more, during periods when the market declined (like now) between 1970 and 2000, dividend stocks outperformed non-dividend-paying stocks by a 1.5% margin every month!

Lowell Miller, author of “The Single Best Investment” and money manager extraordinaire, insists on investing only in dividend rising stocks. He states, “Dividend growth is the true signal of a prospering company.”

Miller’s formula for beating the market is simple but powerful. He calls it “Investing with Peace of Mind.” His formula is:

High Quality + High Yield + Growth of Yield = High Total Return

Doug Casey says it best, “Dividends are an outward sign of inward grace.” I can tell Doug went to a Catholic school.

I like this statement by John D. Rockefeller: “Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It’s seeing my dividends coming in!”

Since the early 1990s, I have emphasized dividend-paying stocks in my newsletter Forecasts & Strategies. To find out my latest picks (one rose 70% last year), go to www.markskousen.com.

You Blew it!
Obama Denies a Growing Welfare State

“Welfare is actually worth less now than it was 20, 30 years ago — it’s worth less than it was under Ronald Reagan.” — President Barack Obama

In an interview on nationwide TV, President Obama told Bill O’Reilly with a straight face that there’s no welfare crisis in America. He said that welfare costs have already fallen in real terms since Reagan was elected.

Granted, the welfare program AFDC (Aid to Dependent Children) was converted to a block grant in 1996, and has been roughly flat at about $20 billion for the past 15 years.

However, “welfare” more broadly includes food stamps (which have quadrupled since 2000), the two disability programs (SSDI and SSI) which have soared, EITC spending which has soared, and many other items. Between Section 8 housing, Medicaid, disability and food stamps, the U.S. government offers an incredibly generous welfare program — to the point that millions of Americans will be fourth-generation welfare recipients in no time. If you want, you can chart spending with this online tool by clicking the boxes to the left.

The Welfare Reform Act of 1996 was leading to a drop-off in welfare in the United States, until the 2008 financial crisis. We need to bring sanity back to America.

New Third Edition of “Maxims” Hot Off the Press

I just got a call from David Norcom, a successful hedge fund manager in Dallas, Texas. He had ordered 100 copies of my new edition of “Maxims of Wall Street” to give to clients and investors. He told me that he’s gotten dozens of thank you responses from recipients of the book, including several prospective clients. “Friends tell me they love the quotations; the book makes an excellent reference guide that they can pick up at any time and learn from some pithy proverb or advice.” (By the way, Norcom will be joining us at our Global Summit in the Bahamas.)

Good news! The second edition has sold out — more than 20,000 are in print now — and I’ve gone back to press with an updated new 3rd edition. It includes more than a dozen new sayings by Ron Baron, Peter Lynch, John Neff, Ken Fisher and Burt Malkiel. Every page is packed with the wisdom of ages, such as J. Paul Getty’s advice, “Bank on the trends and don’t worry about the tremors.” That’s what we are trying to do at Forecasts & Strategies.

“Maxims” makes a perfect gift for students, friends, your favorite broker and business colleagues. I’m offering a half-price deal. Buy the first copy for $20 and all additional copies are only $10. Plus, I pay the U.S. postage. Also: If you order an entire box of 32 books, you pay only $300 postpaid. (For orders sent outside of the United States, add $10 per book for shipping and handling.)

Heddy Green said it best, “When I see something cheap, I buy a lot of it.”

To order, call Eagle Publishing at 1-800/211-7661. Mention priority code MAXIMS to buy individual books and MARKR to buy a box of 32 books.

Note: I autograph all copies if you order through Eagle Publishing.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter column from last week about how President Obama should have earned an MBA rather than a law degree. I also invite you to comment in the space provided below.

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About Mark Skousen

Mark Skousen, Ph. D., is the editor of the monthly investment newsletter Forecasts & Strategies, as well as three weekly trading services—High-Income Alert, Five Star Trader, and Fast Money Alert. He is also a professional economist, investment expert, university professor, and author of more than 25 books. He earned his Ph. D. in monetary economics at George Washington University in 1977. He has taught economics and finance at Columbia Business School, Columbia University, Grantham University, Barnard College, Mercy College, Rollins College, and is a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University. He also has been a consultant to IBM, Hutchinson Technology, and other Fortune 500 companies. For more information about Mark’s services, go to http://www.markskousen.com/

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  • Paul

    Great advice about the long-term value of investing in dividend-paying stocks that keeps management teams disciplined to return cash rather than try risky ventures.


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